Identity checkMatches
✓CardXY - Ancient Origins #99/98 · Holo
✓Tracker matchEnergy Retrieval · XY - Ancient Origins · #99/98
✓Raw pricePulse $20.44 vs tracker $21.13 (+3%)
✓Gem rate17.7% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$128.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$13.37 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$8.05 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on XY: none graded yet
XY grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 XY grades are back.
Graded economics-85%
PSA 10$128.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$13.37PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$8.05PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$80.27$14.09 net sale vs $94.36 cost
EV rangeEV range: -88% / -85% / -82% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $20.44PSA 10 rate 15.0–20.8% (80% interval on 50 / 282); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 90). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 10% / 9 54% / 8 23% / ≤7 14%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 17.7% → adjusted 9.8% (XY, ×0.55 at $20 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 89.9% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $20.44 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.93 = $94.36Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $104.45 · PSA 9 $6.07 · PSA 8 $1.61 · ≤7 $1.61PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitXY grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium9.6x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate17.7%
PSA 10 pop50
Total pop282
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity68/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply68/100
Demand31/100
Gem rate 17.7%PSA 10 pop 50/282PSA 10/9 premium 9.6xSupply constraint 68/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$21.13
Pulse price$20.44
Delta+3%
CheckedSep 30, 2026
Energy RetrievalPSA comps refreshed Sep 30, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$19.69 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown45% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.