Identity checkMatches
✓CardXY - Evolutions #100/108 · Holo
✓Tracker matchM Venusaur EX (Full Art) · XY - Evolutions · #100/108
✓Raw pricePulse $33.45 vs tracker $33.47 (+0%)
✓Gem rate37.6% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$274.84 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$68.33 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$40.98 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on XY: none graded yet
XY grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 XY grades are back.
Graded economics-22%
PSA 10$274.84PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$68.33PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$40.98PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$23.60$84.25 net sale vs $107.84 cost
EV rangeEV range: -26% / -22% / -17% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $33.45PSA 10 rate 37.1–38.2% (80% interval on 5220 / 13873); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 22% / 9 47% / 8 19% / ≤7 12%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 37.6% → adjusted 22.2% (XY, ×0.59 at $33 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 34.8% adjusted (≈ 58.9% population)
CostsRaw $33.45 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.40 = $107.84Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $230.47 · PSA 9 $53.24 · PSA 8 $29.77 · ≤7 $20.44PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitXY grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.0x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate37.6%
PSA 10 pop5,220
Total pop13,873
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity43/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply39/100
Demand57/100
Gem rate 37.6%PSA 10 pop 5220/13873PSA 10/9 premium 4.0xSupply constraint 39/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$33.47
Pulse price$33.45
Delta+0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
M Venusaur EX (Full Art)PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$32.86 floor, 4 tests
Drawdown30% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.