Identity checkMatches
✓CardSM - Guardians Rising #163/145 · Holo
✓Tracker matchField Blower (Secret) · SM - Guardians Rising · #163/145
✓Raw pricePulse $18.15 vs tracker $18.15 (+0%)
✓Gem rate39.8% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$49.99 · PriceCharting · this printing
✓PSA 9 comp$10.80 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 compNone (optional downside)
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SM: none graded yet
SM grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SM grades are back.
Graded economics-88%
PSA 10$49.99PriceCharting
PSA 9$10.80PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8-PriceCharting
Net EV−$80.75$11.23 net sale vs $91.99 cost
EV rangeEV range: -92% / -88% / -83% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $18.15PSA 10 rate 33.8–46.1% (80% interval on 41 / 103); comps ±16.0% (comp quality 68). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 22% / 9 47% / 8 20% / ≤7 12%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 39.8% → adjusted 21.9% (SM, ×0.55 at $18 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $18.15 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.85 = $91.99Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $37.50 · PSA 9 $3.87 · PSA 8 $3.87 · ≤7 $3.87PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSM grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium4.6x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate39.8%
PSA 10 pop41
Total pop103
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity48/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply36/100
Demand0/100
Gem rate 39.8%PSA 10 pop 41/103PSA 10/9 premium 4.6xSupply constraint 36/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$18.15
Pulse price$18.15
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Field Blower (Secret)PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$17.49 floor, 5 tests
Drawdown43% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.