Oricorio - SM19 (Prerelease) [Staff] Holo

SM Promos - #SM19 - SM - Promo

PassSlab

Max buy: PSA 10 ≤ $1,329PSA 9 ≤ $7.57
Current: $19.33
Slab: Search for discounted slabs
Confidence: Low confidence in this verdict, show why
Low confidence in this verdict
Held by a blocker: Estimated PSA 10/9 comps
Thin comps (comp quality 57, under 65)

Rank #334 of today's pool · score 34Top EV

Held back by: Estimated PSA 10/9 comps.
The slab market isn't strong enough yet (liquidity 72, comps 57).
A PSA 10 sells for 106.0× a PSA 9, and only 21 exist.

Estimated PSA 10/9 compsHigh EV on thin compsHigh EV needs strong compsNo PSA 8 downside compThin graded comps

Checklist 0 of 5 checked

Must check: Replace the estimated PSA 10/9 prices with real sold comps (we use PSA 10 $1,999, PSA 9 $18.85).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9
Must check: High EV is resting on thin comps; confirm the PSA 10 and PSA 9 prices (we use PSA 10 $1,999, PSA 9 $18.85).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9
Must check: EV over 150% needs comp quality ≥ 80 and liquidity ≥ 70; confirm PSA 9 and PSA 10 sales first (we use PSA 10 $1,999, PSA 9 $18.85).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9
Search eBay sold for a PSA 8 to size the downside.eBay sold PSA 8
Add a few more PSA sold comps if you can (we use PSA 10 $1,999, PSA 9 $18.85).eBay sold PSA 10 eBay sold PSA 9 eBay sold PSA 8

Current

$19.33

PT ok$19.33 0%Scarcity 66Grade EV +213%

All-time high*

$21.20

All-time low*

$7.13

vs high

-9%

At support - floor $18.16 - 4x View on TCGplayer eBay Buy It Now eBay Auctions

Identity checkMismatch

✓CardSM Promos #SM19 · Holo

✓Tracker matchOricorio - SM19 (Prerelease) [Staff] · SM Promos · #SM19

✓Raw pricePulse $19.33 vs tracker $19.33 (+0%)

✓Gem rate40.4% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing

✓PSA 10 comp$1,999 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID

✕PSA 9 comp$18.85 · Market grade-curve estimate · this printing

!PSA 8 compNone (optional downside)

Your grading resultsNone logged

Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SM: none graded yet
SM grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SM grades are back.

Graded economics+213%

PSA 10$1,999PokemonPriceTracker 90d

PSA 9$18.85Market grade-curve estimate

PSA 8-Market grade-curve estimate

Net EV$263.95$387.86 net sale vs $123.91 cost

EV rangeEV range: +106% / +213% / > 300% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $57.98 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $19.33PSA 10 rate 32.1–49.3% (80% interval on 21 / 52); comps ±21.5% (comp quality 57). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.

Outcome mix10 22% / 9 47% / 8 19% / ≤7 12%

PSA 10 ratePopulation 40.4% → adjusted 22.2% (SM, ×0.55 at $19 value, starting assumption)

Break-evenNeeds ≥ 5.3% adjusted (≈ 9.7% population)

CostsRaw $19.33 + shipping $5.00 + grading $90.87 (expected; 22% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.71 = $123.91Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,710.19 · PSA 9 $10.78 · PSA 8 $9.53 · ≤7 $9.53PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 22% chance of an upcharge to Express; about 111 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).

Grade splitSM grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7

PSA 10/9 premium106.0x

PopulationPSA 10

Gem rate40.4%

PSA 10 pop21

Total pop52

SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment

PSA 10 velocity-

Total velocity-

SnapshotJun 20, 2026

Scarcity66/100

LabelWatch

Confidence96/100

Supply36/100

Demand100/100

Gem rate 40.4%PSA 10 pop 21/52PSA 10/9 premium 106.0xSupply constraint 36/100

Raw validationconfirmed

TCG market$19.33

Pulse price$19.33

Delta0%

CheckedNov 1, 2026

Oricorio - SM19 (Prerelease) [Staff]PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days

Signal context1

Support$18.16 floor, 4 tests

*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.