Identity checkMatches
✓CardAlternate Art Promos #055a/111 · Holo
✓Tracker matchM Lucario EX - 55a/111 · Alternate Art Promos · #055a/111
✓Raw pricePulse $54.23 vs tracker $55.84 (+3%)
✓Gem rate19.3% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$950.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$180.66 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$85.05 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Other: none graded yet
Other grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Other grades are back.
Graded economics+40%
PSA 10$950.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$180.66PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$85.05PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$51.73$181.11 net sale vs $129.38 cost
EV rangeEV range: +31% / +40% / +49% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $67.41 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $54.23PSA 10 rate 18.7–20.0% (80% interval on 1333 / 6893); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 90). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 11% / 9 44% / 8 27% / ≤7 18%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 19.3% → adjusted 11.2% (Other, ×0.58 at $54 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 3.9% adjusted (≈ 6.7% population)
CostsRaw $54.23 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.16 = $129.38Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $809.91 · PSA 9 $149.65 · PSA 8 $67.59 · ≤7 $36.49PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitOther split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 20.0% vs Other typical 20.4%): PSA 9 50% → 49%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium5.3x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate19.3%
PSA 10 pop1,333
Total pop6,893
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity66/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply65/100
Demand98/100
Gem rate 19.3%PSA 10 pop 1333/6893PSA 10/9 premium 5.3xSupply constraint 65/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$55.84
Pulse price$54.23
Delta+3%
CheckedOct 16, 2026
M Lucario EX - 55a/111PSA comps refreshed Oct 16, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$54.03 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown47% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.