PSA 10$456.32PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$107.86PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$51.17PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$5.04$99.74 net sale vs $104.79 cost
EV rangeEV range: -11% / -5% / +2% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $1.74 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $30.50PSA 10 rate 22.5–24.4% (80% interval on 810 / 3453); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 13% / 9 44% / 8 26% / ≤7 17%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 23.5% → adjusted 12.5% (Other, ×0.53 at $31 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 14.1% adjusted (≈ 26.3% population)
CostsRaw $30.50 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.30 = $104.79Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $386.23 · PSA 9 $87.17 · PSA 8 $38.51 · ≤7 $18.16PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitOther grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.2x