Identity checkMatches
✓CardSM - Ultra Prism #151/156 · Holo
✓Tracker matchLillie (Full Art) · SM - Ultra Prism · #151/156
✓Raw pricePulse $475.58 vs tracker $475.58 (+0%)
✓Gem rate28.1% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$1,599 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$470.56 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$349.16 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SM: none graded yet
SM grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SM grades are back.
Graded economics-4%
PSA 10$1,599PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$470.56PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$349.16PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$22.81$569.84 net sale vs $592.66 cost
EV rangeEV range: -18% / -4% / +14% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $288.19 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $475.58PSA 10 rate 19.2–39.2% (80% interval on 9 / 32); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 21% / 9 47% / 8 20% / ≤7 12%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 28.1% → adjusted 21.1% (SM, ×0.75 at $476 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 23.7% adjusted (≈ 31.6% population)
CostsRaw $475.58 + shipping $5.00 + grading $89.31 (expected; 21% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $16.76 = $592.66Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $1,366.90 · PSA 9 $398.44 · PSA 8 $294.26 · ≤7 $294.26PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 21% chance of an upcharge to Express; about 112 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSM grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.4x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate28.1%
PSA 10 pop9
Total pop32
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity66/100
LabelWatch
Confidence92/100
Supply52/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 28.1%PSA 10 pop 9/32PSA 10/9 premium 3.4xSupply constraint 52/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$475.58
Pulse price$475.58
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Lillie (Full Art)PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$423.71 floor, 4 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.