Identity checkMatches
✓CardSWSH01: Sword & Shield Base Set #213/202 · Holo
✓Tracker matchAir Balloon (Secret) · SWSH01: Sword & Shield Base Set · #213/202
✓Raw pricePulse $11.09 vs tracker $11.09 (+0%)
✓Gem rate74.2% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$40.68 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$33.23 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 compNone (optional downside)
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics-74%
PSA 10$40.68PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$33.23PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8-PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$62.25$22.42 net sale vs $84.67 cost
EV rangeEV range: -77% / -74% / -70% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $11.09PSA 10 rate 71.4–76.7% (80% interval on 333 / 449); comps ±12.0% (comp quality 76). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 44% / 9 38% / 8 12% / ≤7 6%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 74.2% → adjusted 44.5% (SW&SH, ×0.60 at $11 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $11.09 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.59 = $84.67Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $29.51 · PSA 9 $23.11 · PSA 8 $3.17 · ≤7 $3.17PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium1.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate74.2%
PSA 10 pop333
Total pop449
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity12/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply7/100
Demand0/100
Gem rate 74.2%PSA 10 pop 333/449PSA 10/9 premium 1.2xSupply constraint 7/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$11.09
Pulse price$11.09
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Air Balloon (Secret)PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown70% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.