Identity checkMatches
✓CardSWSH02: Rebel Clash #192/192 · Holo
✓Tracker matchSonia (Full Art) · SWSH02: Rebel Clash · #192/192
✓Raw pricePulse $19.62 vs tracker $19.62 (+0%)
✓Gem rate58.5% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$63.64 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$28.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$21.13 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics-70%
PSA 10$63.64PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$28.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$21.13PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$65.37$28.14 net sale vs $93.51 cost
EV rangeEV range: -72% / -70% / -68% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $19.62PSA 10 rate 57.1–59.9% (80% interval on 1181 / 2019); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 35% / 9 44% / 8 14% / ≤7 6%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 58.5% → adjusted 35.1% (SW&SH, ×0.60 at $20 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $19.62 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.90 = $93.51Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $49.22 · PSA 9 $19.06 · PSA 8 $12.74 · ≤7 $9.75PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.2x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate58.5%
PSA 10 pop1,181
Total pop2,019
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity23/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply17/100
Demand8/100
Gem rate 58.5%PSA 10 pop 1181/2019PSA 10/9 premium 2.2xSupply constraint 17/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$19.62
Pulse price$19.62
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Sonia (Full Art)PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$19.23 floor, 4 tests
Drawdown25% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.