PSA 10$55.48Market grade-curve estimate
PSA 9$20.43Market grade-curve estimate
PSA 8-Market grade-curve estimate
Net EV−$128.36$12.13 net sale vs $140.49 cost
EV rangeEV range: -94% / -91% / -85% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $64.95PSA 10 rate 0.0–21.5% (80% interval on 0 / 6); comps ±20.5% (comp quality 59). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 0% / 9 60% / 8 25% / ≤7 15%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.0% → adjusted 0.0% (XY, ×0.64 at $65 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $64.95 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.55 = $140.49Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $42.21 · PSA 9 $12.13 · PSA 8 $12.13 · ≤7 $12.13PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitXY grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium2.7x