Identity checkMatches
✓CardSWSH06: Chilling Reign #203/198 · Holo
✓Tracker matchIce Rider Calyrex VMAX (Alternate Art Secret) · SWSH06: Chilling Reign · #203/198
✓Raw pricePulse $38.89 vs tracker $38.89 (+0%)
✓Gem rate76.1% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$102.26 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$30.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$44.79 · PriceCharting crawler · this printing
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics-54%
PSA 10$102.26PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$30.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$44.79PriceCharting crawler
Net EV−$60.93$52.56 net sale vs $113.48 cost
EV rangeEV range: -60% / -54% / -47% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $38.89PSA 10 rate 75.1–77.0% (80% interval on 2522 / 3314); comps ±11.5% (comp quality 77). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 50% / 9 34% / 8 11% / ≤7 5%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 76.1% → adjusted 49.7% (SW&SH, ×0.65 at $39 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $38.89 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.60 = $113.48Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $82.36 · PSA 9 $20.35 · PSA 8 $33.04 · ≤7 $20.35PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.4x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate76.1%
PSA 10 pop2,522
Total pop3,314
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity24/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply6/100
Demand24/100
Gem rate 76.1%PSA 10 pop 2522/3314PSA 10/9 premium 3.4xSupply constraint 6/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$38.89
Pulse price$38.89
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Ice Rider Calyrex VMAX (Alternate Art Secret)PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$34.76 floor, 4 tests
Drawdown32% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.