Identity checkMatches
✓CardSWSH: Crown Zenith #147/159 · Holo
✓Tracker matchElesa's Sparkle (Full Art) · SWSH: Crown Zenith · #147/159
✓Raw pricePulse $15.06 vs tracker $15.06 (+0%)
✓Gem rate50.6% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$62.49 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$21.94 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$14.83 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics-75%
PSA 10$62.49PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$21.94PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$14.83PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$66.37$22.41 net sale vs $88.78 cost
EV rangeEV range: -77% / -75% / -73% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $15.06PSA 10 rate 49.6–51.5% (80% interval on 2191 / 4333); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 30% / 9 45% / 8 16% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 50.6% → adjusted 30.3% (SW&SH, ×0.60 at $15 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $15.06 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.73 = $88.78Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $48.23 · PSA 9 $13.43 · PSA 8 $7.33 · ≤7 $6.23PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 51.5% vs SW&SH typical 56.5%): PSA 9 68% → 65%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.8x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate50.6%
PSA 10 pop2,191
Total pop4,333
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity28/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply24/100
Demand7/100
Gem rate 50.6%PSA 10 pop 2191/4333PSA 10/9 premium 2.8xSupply constraint 24/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$15.06
Pulse price$15.06
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Elesa's Sparkle (Full Art)PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$14.19 floor, 6 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.