PSA 10$3,405PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$1,338PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$670.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$437.16$831.74 net sale vs $394.58 cost
EV rangeEV range: +97% / +111% / +126% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $575.68 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $285.00PSA 10 rate 8.4–11.2% (80% interval on 71 / 733); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 90). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 7% / 9 32% / 8 35% / ≤7 26%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 9.7% → adjusted 7.3% (SM, ×0.75 at $285 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $285.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $87.36 (expected; 39% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $11.22 = $394.58Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $2,916.98 · PSA 9 $1,143.23 · PSA 8 $570.04 · ≤7 $214.73PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 39% chance of an upcharge to Priority/Super Express; about 116 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSM split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 11.2% vs SM typical 34.0%): PSA 9 60% → 34%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.5x