Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV02: Paldea Evolved #254/193 · Holo
✓Tracker matchIono - 254/193 · SV02: Paldea Evolved · #254/193
✓Raw pricePulse $10.28 vs tracker $10.28 (+0%)
✓Gem rate42.6% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$54.98 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$19.69 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$17.75 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-78%
PSA 10$54.98PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$19.69PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$17.75PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$65.53$18.30 net sale vs $83.83 cost
EV rangeEV range: -80% / -78% / -77% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $10.28PSA 10 rate 41.7–43.5% (80% interval on 2026 / 4759); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 26% / 9 51% / 8 16% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 42.6% → adjusted 25.5% (SV, ×0.60 at $10 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $10.28 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.56 = $83.83Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $41.78 · PSA 9 $11.50 · PSA 8 $9.83 · ≤7 $2.64PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.8x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate42.6%
PSA 10 pop2,026
Total pop4,759
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity31/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply33/100
Demand3/100
Gem rate 42.6%PSA 10 pop 2026/4759PSA 10/9 premium 2.8xSupply constraint 33/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$10.28
Pulse price$10.28
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Iono - 254/193PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown62% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.