Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV02: Paldea Evolved #269/193 · Holo
✓Tracker matchIono - 269/193 · SV02: Paldea Evolved · #269/193
✓Raw pricePulse $47.18 vs tracker $53.53 (+13%)
✓Gem rate45.3% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$165.63 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$56.87 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$52.19 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-43%
PSA 10$165.63PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$56.87PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$52.19PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$51.92$70.15 net sale vs $122.08 cost
EV rangeEV range: -46% / -43% / -39% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $47.18PSA 10 rate 44.8–45.8% (80% interval on 6879 / 15195); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 90). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 30% / 9 47% / 8 15% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 45.3% → adjusted 30.2% (SV, ×0.67 at $47 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 84.6% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $47.18 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.91 = $122.08Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $136.74 · PSA 9 $43.40 · PSA 8 $39.39 · ≤7 $31.04PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.9x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate45.3%
PSA 10 pop6,879
Total pop15,195
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity33/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply30/100
Demand40/100
Gem rate 45.3%PSA 10 pop 6879/15195PSA 10/9 premium 2.9xSupply constraint 30/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$53.53
Pulse price$47.18
Delta+13%
CheckedOct 1, 2026
Iono - 269/193PSA comps refreshed Oct 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$46.52 floor, 3 tests
Drawdown40% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.