PSA 10$196.90PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$58.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$18.66PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$72.53$42.48 net sale vs $115.02 cost
EV rangeEV range: -68% / -63% / -57% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $40.37PSA 10 rate 11.0–20.1% (80% interval on 15 / 100); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 10% / 9 49% / 8 26% / ≤7 15%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 15.0% → adjusted 9.8% (SV, ×0.66 at $40 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 63.8% adjusted (≈ 97.4% population)
CostsRaw $40.37 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.66 = $115.02Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $163.58 · PSA 9 $45.23 · PSA 8 $10.61 · ≤7 $10.61PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 20.1% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 54%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.3x