Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Scarlet & Violet 151 #184/165 · Holo
✓Tracker matchBlastoise ex - 184/165 · SV: Scarlet & Violet 151 · #184/165
✓Raw pricePulse $17.64 vs tracker $17.64 (+0%)
✓Gem rate37.2% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$104.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$42.98 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$20.24 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-58%
PSA 10$104.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$42.98PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$20.24PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$53.43$38.03 net sale vs $91.46 cost
EV rangeEV range: -61% / -58% / -56% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $17.64PSA 10 rate 36.5–37.8% (80% interval on 3515 / 9453); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 22% / 9 53% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 37.2% → adjusted 22.3% (SV, ×0.60 at $18 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $17.64 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.83 = $91.46Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $83.86 · PSA 9 $31.49 · PSA 8 $11.97 · ≤7 $8.23PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.4x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate37.2%
PSA 10 pop3,515
Total pop9,453
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity33/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply39/100
Demand24/100
Gem rate 37.2%PSA 10 pop 3515/9453PSA 10/9 premium 2.4xSupply constraint 39/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$17.64
Pulse price$17.64
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Blastoise ex - 184/165PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$15.64 floor, 4 tests
Drawdown36% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.