Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Scarlet & Violet 151 #183/165 · Holo
✓Tracker matchCharizard ex - 183/165 · SV: Scarlet & Violet 151 · #183/165
✓Raw pricePulse $37.12 vs tracker $36.46 (-2%)
✓Gem rate37.2% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$206.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$41.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$48.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-42%
PSA 10$206.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$41.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$48.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$47.10$64.55 net sale vs $111.65 cost
EV rangeEV range: -47% / -42% / -37% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $37.12PSA 10 rate 36.8–37.6% (80% interval on 8918 / 24000); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 24% / 9 52% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 37.2% → adjusted 24.1% (SV, ×0.65 at $37 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 57.4% adjusted (≈ 88.5% population)
CostsRaw $37.12 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.54 = $111.65Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $171.82 · PSA 9 $29.79 · PSA 8 $35.79 · ≤7 $23.27PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium5.0x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate37.2%
PSA 10 pop8,918
Total pop24,000
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity45/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply39/100
Demand47/100
Gem rate 37.2%PSA 10 pop 8918/24000PSA 10/9 premium 5.0xSupply constraint 39/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$36.46
Pulse price$37.12
Delta-2%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Charizard ex - 183/165PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$36.16 floor, 7 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.