Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Scarlet & Violet 151 #203/165 · Holo
✓Tracker matchErika's Invitation - 203/165 · SV: Scarlet & Violet 151 · #203/165
✓Raw pricePulse $15.66 vs tracker $15.70 (+0%)
✓Gem rate27.7% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$146.12 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$21.73 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$19.66 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-67%
PSA 10$146.12PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$21.73PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$19.66PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$59.46$29.95 net sale vs $89.41 cost
EV rangeEV range: -69% / -67% / -64% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $15.66PSA 10 rate 27.2–28.1% (80% interval on 4817 / 17411); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 17% / 9 53% / 8 20% / ≤7 10%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 27.7% → adjusted 16.6% (SV, ×0.60 at $16 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 71.7% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $15.66 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.76 = $89.41Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $120.00 · PSA 9 $13.24 · PSA 8 $11.47 · ≤7 $6.70PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 28.1% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 64%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate27.7%
PSA 10 pop4,817
Total pop17,411
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity52/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply52/100
Demand36/100
Gem rate 27.7%PSA 10 pop 4817/17411PSA 10/9 premium 6.7xSupply constraint 52/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$15.70
Pulse price$15.66
Delta+0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Erika's Invitation - 203/165PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$14.97 floor, 5 tests
Drawdown28% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.