PSA 10$462.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$155.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8-PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$16.22$157.63 net sale vs $173.85 cost
EV rangeEV range: -19% / -9% / +1% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $23.85 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $97.13PSA 10 rate 31.4–33.2% (80% interval on 1406 / 4357); comps ±12.0% (comp quality 76). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 20% / 9 40% / 8 24% / ≤7 16%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 32.3% → adjusted 20.2% (Other, ×0.63 at $97 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 25.7% adjusted (≈ 41.1% population)
CostsRaw $97.13 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $5.73 = $173.85Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $391.10 · PSA 9 $127.62 · PSA 8 $69.62 · ≤7 $69.62PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitOther grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium3.0x