Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV04: Paradox Rift #248/182 · Holo
✓Tracker matchIron Hands ex - 248/182 · SV04: Paradox Rift · #248/182
✓Raw pricePulse $12.45 vs tracker $12.44 (-0%)
✓Gem rate32.8% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$139.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$29.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$14.85 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-59%
PSA 10$139.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$29.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$14.85PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$50.74$35.34 net sale vs $86.08 cost
EV rangeEV range: -62% / -59% / -56% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $12.45PSA 10 rate 31.5–34.2% (80% interval on 634 / 1932); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 20% / 9 55% / 8 18% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 32.8% → adjusted 19.7% (SV, ×0.60 at $12 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 71.0% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $12.45 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.64 = $86.08Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $114.74 · PSA 9 $20.34 · PSA 8 $7.34 · ≤7 $4.22PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate32.8%
PSA 10 pop634
Total pop1,932
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity50/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply45/100
Demand34/100
Gem rate 32.8%PSA 10 pop 634/1932PSA 10/9 premium 4.7xSupply constraint 45/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$12.44
Pulse price$12.45
Delta-0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Iron Hands ex - 248/182PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown63% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.