Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV06: Twilight Masquerade #217/167 · Holo
✓Tracker matchCarmine - 217/167 · SV06: Twilight Masquerade · #217/167
!Raw pricePulse $42.17 vs tracker $50.47 (+20%)
✓Gem rate48.7% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$116.34 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$55.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$57.62 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-50%
PSA 10$116.34PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$55.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$57.62PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$58.84$58.04 net sale vs $116.88 cost
EV rangeEV range: -55% / -50% / -45% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $42.17PSA 10 rate 48.0–49.4% (80% interval on 3941 / 8093); comps ±9.0% (comp quality 82). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 32% / 9 46% / 8 15% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 48.7% → adjusted 32.1% (SV, ×0.66 at $42 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $42.17 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.72 = $116.88Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $94.44 · PSA 9 $41.80 · PSA 8 $44.05 · ≤7 $27.17PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate48.7%
PSA 10 pop3,941
Total pop8,093
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity26/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply26/100
Demand28/100
Gem rate 48.7%PSA 10 pop 3941/8093PSA 10/9 premium 2.1xSupply constraint 26/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$50.47
Pulse price$42.17
Delta+20%
CheckedOct 11, 2026
Carmine - 217/167PSA comps refreshed Oct 11, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown64% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-06-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.