Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Scarlet & Violet Promo Cards #123 · Holo
✓Tracker matchTeal Mask Ogerpon - 123 (Pokemon Center Exclusive) · SV: Scarlet & Violet Promo Cards · #123
✓Raw pricePulse $21.21 vs tracker $21.21 (+0%)
✓Gem rate21.7% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$289.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$30.84 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$16.52 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-52%
PSA 10$289.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$30.84PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$16.52PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$49.52$45.64 net sale vs $95.16 cost
EV rangeEV range: -56% / -52% / -48% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $21.21PSA 10 rate 20.7–22.7% (80% interval on 631 / 2912); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 13% / 9 50% / 8 24% / ≤7 13%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 21.7% → adjusted 13.1% (SV, ×0.60 at $21 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 34.9% adjusted (≈ 57.6% population)
CostsRaw $21.21 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.96 = $95.16Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $243.48 · PSA 9 $21.07 · PSA 8 $8.78 · ≤7 $8.78PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 22.7% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 57%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium9.4x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate21.7%
PSA 10 pop631
Total pop2,912
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity63/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply61/100
Demand59/100
Gem rate 21.7%PSA 10 pop 631/2912PSA 10/9 premium 9.4xSupply constraint 61/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$21.21
Pulse price$21.21
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Teal Mask Ogerpon - 123 (Pokemon Center Exclusive)PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$21.21 floor, 4 tests
Drawdown47% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-06-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.