PSA 10$422.63PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$11.72PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8-PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$5.63$92.82 net sale vs $87.19 cost
EV rangeEV range: -35% / +6% / +57% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $13.52PSA 10 rate 36.2–63.8% (80% interval on 10 / 20); comps ±16.5% (comp quality 67). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 25% / 9 38% / 8 22% / ≤7 15%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 50.0% → adjusted 25.0% (Other, ×0.50 at $14 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 23.4% adjusted (≈ 46.8% population)
CostsRaw $13.52 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.68 = $87.19Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $357.31 · PSA 9 $4.66 · PSA 8 $4.66 · ≤7 $4.66PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitOther grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium36.1x