Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Shrouded Fable #096/064 · Holo
✓Tracker matchEarthen Vessel · SV: Shrouded Fable · #096/064
✓Raw pricePulse $15.06 vs tracker $15.06 (+0%)
✓Gem rate47.7% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$64.72 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$47.54 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$36.70 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-59%
PSA 10$64.72PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$47.54PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$36.70PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$52.71$36.08 net sale vs $88.78 cost
EV rangeEV range: -62% / -59% / -57% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $15.06PSA 10 rate 44.9–50.5% (80% interval on 246 / 516); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 29% / 9 49% / 8 16% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 47.7% → adjusted 28.6% (SV, ×0.60 at $15 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $15.06 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.73 = $88.78Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $50.14 · PSA 9 $35.40 · PSA 8 $26.10 · ≤7 $6.23PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium1.4x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate47.7%
PSA 10 pop246
Total pop516
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity24/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply27/100
Demand9/100
Gem rate 47.7%PSA 10 pop 246/516PSA 10/9 premium 1.4xSupply constraint 27/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$15.06
Pulse price$15.06
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Earthen VesselPSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown76% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-08-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.