PSA 10$51.60PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$372.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$14.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$78.40$170.60 net sale vs $92.20 cost
EV rangeEV range: +62% / +85% / +109% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $49.32 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $18.36PSA 10 rate 37.8–47.5% (80% interval on 72 / 169); comps ±9.5% (comp quality 81). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 26% / 9 51% / 8 16% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 42.6% → adjusted 25.6% (SV, ×0.60 at $18 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenPSA 10 comp is at or below a miss value; check comps
CostsRaw $18.36 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.85 = $92.20Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $38.89 · PSA 9 $314.29 · PSA 8 $6.62 · ≤7 $6.62PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium0.1x