PSA 10$68.46PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$22.97PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$18.52PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$69.55$23.90 net sale vs $93.45 cost
EV rangeEV range: -76% / -74% / -73% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $19.56PSA 10 rate 43.8–46.1% (80% interval on 1388 / 3085); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 27% / 9 50% / 8 16% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 45.0% → adjusted 27.0% (SV, ×0.60 at $20 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $19.56 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.90 = $93.45Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $53.36 · PSA 9 $14.31 · PSA 8 $10.50 · ≤7 $9.71PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.0x