PSA 10$155.10PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$43.78PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$25.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$54.40$53.87 net sale vs $108.27 cost
EV rangeEV range: -53% / -50% / -47% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $33.86PSA 10 rate 41.0–42.1% (80% interval on 5152 / 12397); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 27% / 9 50% / 8 16% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 41.6% → adjusted 26.7% (SV, ×0.64 at $34 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 80.7% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $33.86 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.42 = $108.27Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $127.71 · PSA 9 $32.18 · PSA 8 $16.06 · ≤7 $16.06PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.5x