Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV07: Stellar Crown #172/142 · Holo
✓Tracker matchLacey - 172/142 · SV07: Stellar Crown · #172/142
✓Raw pricePulse $18.33 vs tracker $18.33 (+0%)
✓Gem rate32.5% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$64.07 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$29.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$49.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-69%
PSA 10$64.07PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$29.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$49.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$64.02$28.16 net sale vs $92.17 cost
EV rangeEV range: -72% / -69% / -67% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $18.33PSA 10 rate 31.6–33.5% (80% interval on 1250 / 3842); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 20% / 9 55% / 8 18% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 32.5% → adjusted 19.5% (SV, ×0.60 at $18 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $18.33 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.85 = $92.17Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $49.59 · PSA 9 $20.34 · PSA 8 $37.50 · ≤7 $8.76PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate32.5%
PSA 10 pop1,250
Total pop3,842
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity34/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply46/100
Demand8/100
Gem rate 32.5%PSA 10 pop 1250/3842PSA 10/9 premium 2.1xSupply constraint 46/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$18.33
Pulse price$18.33
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Lacey - 172/142PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$16.40 floor, 3 tests
Drawdown84% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-09-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.