PSA 10$204.49PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$80.55PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$34.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$21.47$75.65 net sale vs $97.12 cost
EV rangeEV range: -30% / -22% / -13% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $23.10PSA 10 rate 29.6–41.1% (80% interval on 39 / 111); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 21% / 9 53% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 35.1% → adjusted 21.5% (SV, ×0.61 at $23 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 39.3% adjusted (≈ 64.3% population)
CostsRaw $23.10 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.03 = $97.12Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $170.10 · PSA 9 $63.73 · PSA 8 $23.78 · ≤7 $12.44PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.5x