Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV08: Surging Sparks #197/191 · Holo
✓Tracker matchCeruledge - 197/191 · SV08: Surging Sparks · #197/191
✓Raw pricePulse $20.29 vs tracker $20.23 (-0%)
✓Gem rate33.5% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$169.63 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$31.25 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$31.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-53%
PSA 10$169.63PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$31.25PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$31.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$49.71$44.50 net sale vs $94.21 cost
EV rangeEV range: -57% / -53% / -49% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $20.29PSA 10 rate 33.1–34.0% (80% interval on 5875 / 17527); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 20% / 9 54% / 8 18% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 33.5% → adjusted 20.2% (SV, ×0.60 at $20 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 61.6% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $20.29 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.93 = $94.21Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $140.18 · PSA 9 $21.42 · PSA 8 $21.63 · ≤7 $10.27PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium5.4x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate33.5%
PSA 10 pop5,875
Total pop17,527
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity47/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply44/100
Demand41/100
Gem rate 33.5%PSA 10 pop 5875/17527PSA 10/9 premium 5.4xSupply constraint 44/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$20.23
Pulse price$20.29
Delta-0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Ceruledge - 197/191PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$20.27 floor, 5 tests
Drawdown46% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-11-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.