Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV08: Surging Sparks #245/191 · Holo
✓Tracker matchJasmine's Gaze - 245/191 · SV08: Surging Sparks · #245/191
✓Raw pricePulse $19.49 vs tracker $19.49 (+0%)
✓Gem rate30.3% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$78.42 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$25.22 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$16.66 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-76%
PSA 10$78.42PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$25.22PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$16.66PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$70.80$22.58 net sale vs $93.38 cost
EV rangeEV range: -78% / -76% / -74% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $19.49PSA 10 rate 29.4–31.2% (80% interval on 1295 / 4271); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 18% / 9 55% / 8 18% / ≤7 9%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 30.3% → adjusted 18.2% (SV, ×0.60 at $19 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $19.49 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.90 = $93.38Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $61.91 · PSA 9 $16.25 · PSA 8 $8.90 · ≤7 $8.90PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 31.2% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 67%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate30.3%
PSA 10 pop1,295
Total pop4,271
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity41/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply49/100
Demand15/100
Gem rate 30.3%PSA 10 pop 1295/4271PSA 10/9 premium 3.1xSupply constraint 49/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$19.49
Pulse price$19.49
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Jasmine's Gaze - 245/191PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$18.48 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown69% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-11-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.