Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #161/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchUmbreon ex - 161/131 · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #161/131
✓Raw pricePulse $1,184 vs tracker $1,184 (+0%)
✓Gem rate29.8% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$4,386 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$1,083 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$807.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics+13%
PSA 10$4,386PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$1,083PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$807.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$173.17$1,539 net sale vs $1,366 cost
EV rangeEV range: +6% / +13% / +19% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $1,033.47 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $1,184PSA 10 rate 29.4–30.3% (80% interval on 5761 / 19313); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 24% / 9 50% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 29.8% → adjusted 23.9% (SV, ×0.80 at $1,184 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 17.4% adjusted (≈ 21.7% population)
CostsRaw $1,184.37 + shipping $5.00 + grading $139.02 (expected; 74% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $31.76 = $1,366.15Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $3,758.44 · PSA 9 $923.95 · PSA 8 $687.62 · ≤7 $687.62PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 74% chance of an upcharge to Priority/Super Express; about 91 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 30.3% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 66%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.0x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate29.8%
PSA 10 pop5,761
Total pop19,313
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity53/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply49/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 29.8%PSA 10 pop 5761/19313PSA 10/9 premium 4.0xSupply constraint 49/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$1,184
Pulse price$1,184
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Umbreon ex - 161/131PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$1,130 floor, 4 tests
Drawdown25% off peak, Recovering
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.