Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #013/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchFlareon (Master Ball Pattern) · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #013/131
✓Raw pricePulse $21.78 vs tracker $21.80 (+0%)
✓Gem rate32.7% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$194.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$31.91 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$15.67 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-52%
PSA 10$194.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$31.91PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$15.67PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$49.59$46.16 net sale vs $95.75 cost
EV rangeEV range: -56% / -52% / -48% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $21.78PSA 10 rate 31.2–34.2% (80% interval on 501 / 1533); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 20% / 9 55% / 8 18% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 32.7% → adjusted 19.8% (SV, ×0.61 at $22 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 54.2% adjusted (≈ 89.3% population)
CostsRaw $21.78 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.98 = $95.75Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $161.95 · PSA 9 $21.99 · PSA 8 $8.05 · ≤7 $8.05PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate32.7%
PSA 10 pop501
Total pop1,533
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity55/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply45/100
Demand45/100
Gem rate 32.7%PSA 10 pop 501/1533PSA 10/9 premium 6.1xSupply constraint 45/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$21.80
Pulse price$21.78
Delta+0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Flareon (Master Ball Pattern)PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$21.73 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown58% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.