Identity checkMismatch
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #029/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchJolteon (Master Ball Pattern) · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #029/131
✕Raw pricePulse $23.00 vs tracker $30.12 (+31%)
✓Gem rate20.6% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$212.45 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$31.57 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$19.65 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-61%
PSA 10$212.45PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$31.57PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$19.65PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$59.44$37.57 net sale vs $97.01 cost
EV rangeEV range: -66% / -61% / -56% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $23.00PSA 10 rate 17.9–23.7% (80% interval on 64 / 310); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 90). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 13% / 9 51% / 8 23% / ≤7 13%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 20.6% → adjusted 12.6% (SV, ×0.61 at $23 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 49.9% adjusted (≈ 81.6% population)
CostsRaw $23.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.02 = $97.01Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $176.93 · PSA 9 $21.70 · PSA 8 $11.46 · ≤7 $11.46PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 23.7% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 59%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate20.6%
PSA 10 pop64
Total pop310
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity68/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply63/100
Demand48/100
Gem rate 20.6%PSA 10 pop 64/310PSA 10/9 premium 6.7xSupply constraint 63/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$30.12
Pulse price$23.00
Delta+31%
CheckedOct 6, 2026
Jolteon (Master Ball Pattern)PSA comps refreshed Oct 6, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown66% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.