Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Prismatic Evolutions #059/131 · Holo
✓Tracker matchUmbreon (Master Ball Pattern) · SV: Prismatic Evolutions · #059/131
✓Raw pricePulse $50.71 vs tracker $50.71 (+0%)
✓Gem rate28.8% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$464.19 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$69.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$63.01 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-7%
PSA 10$464.19PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$69.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$63.01PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$8.44$117.30 net sale vs $125.73 cost
EV rangeEV range: -14% / -7% / +1% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $14.65 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $50.71PSA 10 rate 27.5–30.1% (80% interval on 578 / 2008); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 19% / 9 53% / 8 19% / ≤7 9%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 28.8% → adjusted 19.4% (SV, ×0.67 at $51 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 21.9% adjusted (≈ 32.4% population)
CostsRaw $50.71 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.03 = $125.73Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $392.98 · PSA 9 $54.67 · PSA 8 $48.68 · ≤7 $33.77PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 30.1% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 66%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium6.6x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate28.8%
PSA 10 pop578
Total pop2,008
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity61/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply51/100
Demand74/100
Gem rate 28.8%PSA 10 pop 578/2008PSA 10/9 premium 6.6xSupply constraint 51/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$50.71
Pulse price$50.71
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Umbreon (Master Ball Pattern)PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$50.71 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown84% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-02-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.