PSA 10$212.50PokemonPriceTracker
PSA 9$17.60PokemonPriceTracker
PSA 8$12.94PokemonPriceTracker
Net EV−$58.28$28.16 net sale vs $86.44 cost
EV rangeEV range: -77% / -67% / -55% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $12.80PSA 10 rate 16.7–23.8% (80% interval on 41 / 205); comps ±18.0% (comp quality 64). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 12% / 9 52% / 8 23% / ≤7 13%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 20.0% → adjusted 12.0% (SV, ×0.60 at $13 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 46.5% adjusted (≈ 77.4% population)
CostsRaw $12.80 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.65 = $86.44Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $176.97 · PSA 9 $9.70 · PSA 8 $5.70 · ≤7 $4.49PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 23.8% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 59%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium12.1x