Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV09: Journey Together #184/159 · Holo
✓Tracker matchLillie's Clefairy ex - 184/159 · SV09: Journey Together · #184/159
✓Raw pricePulse $74.94 vs tracker $75.00 (+0%)
✓Gem rate29.5% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$293.05 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$82.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$81.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-33%
PSA 10$293.05PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$82.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$81.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$49.25$101.60 net sale vs $150.85 cost
EV rangeEV range: -36% / -33% / -29% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $2.83 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $74.94PSA 10 rate 29.1–29.9% (80% interval on 5384 / 18245); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 21% / 9 52% / 8 18% / ≤7 9%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 29.5% → adjusted 20.8% (SV, ×0.70 at $75 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 47.8% adjusted (≈ 67.8% population)
CostsRaw $74.94 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.92 = $150.85Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $246.11 · PSA 9 $65.40 · PSA 8 $64.12 · ≤7 $52.48PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 29.9% vs SV typical 32.0%): PSA 9 68% → 66%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.6x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate29.5%
PSA 10 pop5,384
Total pop18,245
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity46/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply50/100
Demand59/100
Gem rate 29.5%PSA 10 pop 5384/18245PSA 10/9 premium 3.6xSupply constraint 50/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$75.00
Pulse price$74.94
Delta+0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Lillie's Clefairy ex - 184/159PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown65% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-04-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.