PSA 10$123.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$31.01PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$47.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$69.44$40.71 net sale vs $110.15 cost
EV rangeEV range: -66% / -63% / -60% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $35.67PSA 10 rate 32.8–34.1% (80% interval on 3170 / 9477); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 22% / 9 53% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 33.4% → adjusted 21.6% (SV, ×0.65 at $36 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $35.67 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.49 = $110.15Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $100.16 · PSA 9 $21.21 · PSA 8 $35.36 · ≤7 $21.21PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.0x