Identity checkMismatch
✓CardSV09: Journey Together #186/159 · Holo
✓Tracker matchHop's Zacian ex - 186/159 · SV09: Journey Together · #186/159
✕Raw pricePulse $23.70 vs tracker $37.38 (+58%)
✓Gem rate32.5% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$159.48 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$34.45 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$28.98 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-55%
PSA 10$159.48PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$34.45PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$28.98PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$53.92$43.82 net sale vs $97.74 cost
EV rangeEV range: -60% / -55% / -50% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $23.70PSA 10 rate 31.8–33.2% (80% interval on 2530 / 7788); comps ±9.5% (comp quality 81). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 20% / 9 54% / 8 18% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 32.5% → adjusted 19.9% (SV, ×0.61 at $24 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 69.2% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $23.70 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.05 = $97.74Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $131.47 · PSA 9 $24.16 · PSA 8 $19.47 · ≤7 $12.91PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.6x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate32.5%
PSA 10 pop2,530
Total pop7,788
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity47/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply46/100
Demand39/100
Gem rate 32.5%PSA 10 pop 2530/7788PSA 10/9 premium 4.6xSupply constraint 46/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$37.38
Pulse price$23.70
Delta+58%
CheckedJun 22, 2026
Hop's Zacian ex - 186/159PSA comps refreshed Jun 22, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown66% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-04-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.