Identity checkMatches
✓CardPrize Pack Series Cards #057/191 · Holo
✓Tracker matchPikachu ex - 057/191 · Prize Pack Series Cards · #057/191
✓Raw pricePulse $28.17 vs tracker $28.17 (+0%)
✓Gem rate27.0% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$426.27 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$99.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
!PSA 8 compNone (optional downside)
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SW&SH: none graded yet
SW&SH grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SW&SH grades are back.
Graded economics-1%
PSA 10$426.27PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$99.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8-PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$0.87$101.50 net sale vs $102.37 cost
EV rangeEV range: -19% / -1% / +20% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $28.17PSA 10 rate 23.2–31.2% (80% interval on 54 / 200); comps ±12.0% (comp quality 76). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 17% / 9 42% / 8 26% / ≤7 16%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 27.0% → adjusted 16.9% (SW&SH, ×0.63 at $28 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 17.2% adjusted (≈ 27.4% population)
CostsRaw $28.17 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.21 = $102.37Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $360.44 · PSA 9 $80.41 · PSA 8 $16.36 · ≤7 $16.36PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSW&SH split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 31.2% vs SW&SH typical 56.5%): PSA 9 68% → 51%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw; no PSA 8 comp, so 8s valued like ≤7
PSA 10/9 premium4.3x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate27.0%
PSA 10 pop54
Total pop200
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 20, 2026
Scarcity63/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply53/100
Demand72/100
Gem rate 27.0%PSA 10 pop 54/200PSA 10/9 premium 4.3xSupply constraint 53/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$28.17
Pulse price$28.17
Delta0%
CheckedOct 30, 2026
Pikachu ex - 057/191PSA comps refreshed Oct 30, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$24.53 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown45% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-09-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.