Identity checkMatches
✓CardME01: Mega Evolution #181/132 · Holo
✓Tracker matchMega Latias ex - 181/132 · ME01: Mega Evolution · #181/132
!Raw pricePulse $63.67 vs tracker $74.36 (+17%)
✓Gem rate65.5% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$170.58 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$62.63 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$74.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Mega: none graded yet
Mega grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Mega grades are back.
Graded economics-34%
PSA 10$170.58PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$62.63PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$74.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$47.84$91.33 net sale vs $139.17 cost
EV rangeEV range: -41% / -34% / -28% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $63.67PSA 10 rate 64.9–66.0% (80% interval on 8294 / 12668); comps ±9.0% (comp quality 82). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 45% / 9 37% / 8 12% / ≤7 5%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 65.5% → adjusted 45.3% (Mega, ×0.69 at $64 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 98.0% adjusted (over 100% population)
CostsRaw $63.67 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $4.51 = $139.17Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $140.99 · PSA 9 $48.35 · PSA 8 $58.96 · ≤7 $43.78PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitMega grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate65.5%
PSA 10 pop8,294
Total pop12,668
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity24/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply12/100
Demand41/100
Gem rate 65.5%PSA 10 pop 8294/12668PSA 10/9 premium 2.7xSupply constraint 12/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$74.36
Pulse price$63.67
Delta+17%
CheckedOct 6, 2026
Mega Latias ex - 181/132PSA comps refreshed Oct 6, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown65% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-10-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.