Identity checkMatches
✓CardME01: Mega Evolution #184/132 · Holo
✓Tracker matchLillie's Determination - 184/132 · ME01: Mega Evolution · #184/132
✓Raw pricePulse $46.17 vs tracker $46.68 (+1%)
✓Gem rate49.2% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$126.05 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$45.75 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$45.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Mega: none graded yet
Mega grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Mega grades are back.
Graded economics-54%
PSA 10$126.05PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$45.75PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$45.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$64.90$56.13 net sale vs $121.03 cost
EV rangeEV range: -56% / -54% / -51% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $46.17PSA 10 rate 48.6–49.9% (80% interval on 4861 / 9877); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 33% / 9 46% / 8 15% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 49.2% → adjusted 32.8% (Mega, ×0.67 at $46 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $46.17 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.87 = $121.03Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $102.78 · PSA 9 $33.87 · PSA 8 $33.22 · ≤7 $30.26PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitMega grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.8x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate49.2%
PSA 10 pop4,861
Total pop9,877
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity29/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply26/100
Demand31/100
Gem rate 49.2%PSA 10 pop 4861/9877PSA 10/9 premium 2.8xSupply constraint 26/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$46.68
Pulse price$46.17
Delta+1%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Lillie's Determination - 184/132PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown72% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-10-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.