Identity checkMatches
✓CardME01: Mega Evolution #185/132 · Holo
✓Tracker matchLt. Surge's Bargain - 185/132 · ME01: Mega Evolution · #185/132
✓Raw pricePulse $12.44 vs tracker $12.78 (+3%)
✓Gem rate49.6% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$69.99 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$22.79 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$16.02 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Mega: none graded yet
Mega grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Mega grades are back.
Graded economics-71%
PSA 10$69.99PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$22.79PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$16.02PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$61.45$24.62 net sale vs $86.07 cost
EV rangeEV range: -73% / -71% / -69% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $12.44PSA 10 rate 48.5–50.7% (80% interval on 1658 / 3342); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 30% / 9 48% / 8 15% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 49.6% → adjusted 29.8% (Mega, ×0.60 at $12 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $12.44 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.64 = $86.07Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $54.67 · PSA 9 $14.16 · PSA 8 $8.35 · ≤7 $4.21PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitMega grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.1x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate49.6%
PSA 10 pop1,658
Total pop3,342
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity30/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply25/100
Demand11/100
Gem rate 49.6%PSA 10 pop 1658/3342PSA 10/9 premium 3.1xSupply constraint 25/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$12.78
Pulse price$12.44
Delta+3%
CheckedOct 27, 2026
Lt. Surge's Bargain - 185/132PSA comps refreshed Oct 27, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown61% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-10-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.