Identity checkMatches
✓CardME01: Mega Evolution #187/132 · Holo
✓Tracker matchMega Gardevoir ex - 187/132 · ME01: Mega Evolution · #187/132
✓Raw pricePulse $153.00 vs tracker $153.00 (+0%)
✓Gem rate23.7% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$487.48 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$149.81 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$188.88 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Mega: none graded yet
Mega grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Mega grades are back.
Graded economics-22%
PSA 10$487.48PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$149.81PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$188.88PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$51.21$180.55 net sale vs $231.75 cost
EV rangeEV range: -28% / -22% / -16% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $58.04 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $153.00PSA 10 rate 23.0–24.3% (80% interval on 1682 / 7110); comps ±7.5% (comp quality 85). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 18% / 9 56% / 8 18% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 23.7% → adjusted 18.0% (Mega, ×0.76 at $153 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 36.1% adjusted (≈ 47.4% population)
CostsRaw $153.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $7.76 = $231.75Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $412.97 · PSA 9 $123.17 · PSA 8 $156.70 · ≤7 $112.78PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitMega grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.3x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate23.7%
PSA 10 pop1,682
Total pop7,110
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity53/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply58/100
Demand76/100
Gem rate 23.7%PSA 10 pop 1682/7110PSA 10/9 premium 3.3xSupply constraint 58/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$153.00
Pulse price$153.00
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Mega Gardevoir ex - 187/132PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown74% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-10-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.