Identity checkMatches
✓CardME01: Mega Evolution #188/132 · Holo
✓Tracker matchMega Lucario ex - 188/132 · ME01: Mega Evolution · #188/132
✓Raw pricePulse $204.83 vs tracker $204.83 (+0%)
✓Gem rate28.3% · GemRate snapshot enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$655.55 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$199.19 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$147.50 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Mega: none graded yet
Mega grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Mega grades are back.
Graded economics-15%
PSA 10$655.55PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$199.19PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$147.50PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$44.17$241.30 net sale vs $285.47 cost
EV rangeEV range: -20% / -15% / -10% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $109.77 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $204.83PSA 10 rate 27.7–28.9% (80% interval on 2489 / 8807); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 22% / 9 53% / 8 17% / ≤7 8%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 28.3% → adjusted 22.2% (Mega, ×0.78 at $205 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenNeeds ≥ 33.0% adjusted (≈ 42.1% population)
CostsRaw $204.83 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $9.65 = $285.47Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $557.21 · PSA 9 $165.55 · PSA 8 $121.19 · ≤7 $121.19PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitMega grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.3x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate28.3%
PSA 10 pop2,489
Total pop8,807
SourceGemRate snapshot enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 21, 2026
Scarcity51/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply51/100
Demand86/100
Gem rate 28.3%PSA 10 pop 2489/8807PSA 10/9 premium 3.3xSupply constraint 51/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$204.83
Pulse price$204.83
Delta0%
CheckedNov 1, 2026
Mega Lucario ex - 188/132PSA comps refreshed Nov 1, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Drawdown71% off peak, Basing
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-10-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.