Identity checkMatches
✓CardSV: Scarlet & Violet Promo Cards #176 · Holo
✓Tracker matchUmbreon ex - 176 · SV: Scarlet & Violet Promo Cards · #176
✓Raw pricePulse $25.83 vs tracker $27.00 (+5%)
✓Gem rate55.9% · GemRate card search enrichment · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$119.68 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$45.00 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$38.81 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on SV: none graded yet
SV grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 SV grades are back.
Graded economics-47%
PSA 10$119.68PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$45.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$38.81PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$46.48$53.47 net sale vs $99.95 cost
EV rangeEV range: -50% / -47% / -43% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $25.83PSA 10 rate 55.5–56.4% (80% interval on 10613 / 18976); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 93). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 35% / 9 44% / 8 14% / ≤7 7%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 55.9% → adjusted 34.7% (SV, ×0.62 at $26 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $25.83 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $3.13 = $99.95Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $97.31 · PSA 9 $33.22 · PSA 8 $27.90 · ≤7 $14.55PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitSV grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium2.7x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate55.9%
PSA 10 pop10,613
Total pop18,976
SourceGemRate card search enrichment
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity26/100
LabelWeak
Confidence100/100
Supply19/100
Demand29/100
Gem rate 55.9%PSA 10 pop 10613/18976PSA 10/9 premium 2.7xSupply constraint 19/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$27.00
Pulse price$25.83
Delta+5%
CheckedOct 31, 2026
Umbreon ex - 176PSA comps refreshed Oct 31, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context2
Support$25.11 floor, 2 tests
Drawdown71% off peak, Falling
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2025-11-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.