PSA 10$108.53PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$30.35PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$30.00PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV−$68.69$19.06 net sale vs $87.75 cost
EV rangeEV range: -80% / -78% / -59% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy: none (the pessimistic case can't return 20% at any price), with the card's value held at $14.06PSA 10 rate 0.0–35.4% (80% interval on 0 / 3); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 90). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 0% / 9 68% / 8 22% / ≤7 10%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 0.0% → adjusted 0.0% (Mega, ×0.60 at $14 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenCan't break even at these prices
CostsRaw $14.06 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $2.70 = $87.75Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $87.74 · PSA 9 $20.65 · PSA 8 $20.35 · ≤7 $5.46PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitMega grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium3.6x