PSA 10$147.80PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$870.64PriceCharting crawler
PSA 8$666.00PriceCharting crawler
Net EV$193.64$525.93 net sale vs $332.29 cost
EV rangeEV range: +38% / +58% / +79% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $307.53 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $250.00PSA 10 rate 3.8–5.4% (80% interval on 51 / 1115); comps ±13.5% (comp quality 73). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 3% / 9 40% / 8 31% / ≤7 26%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 4.6% → adjusted 3.0% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $250 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenPSA 10 comp is at or below a miss value; check comps
CostsRaw $250.00 + shipping $5.00 + grading $59.99 (expected) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $11.30 = $332.29Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $121.44 · PSA 9 $741.81 · PSA 8 $566.18 · ≤7 $187.70PSA tier: Standard $59.99; about 133 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings). Grade splitVintage split adjusted for this card's low PSA 10 rate (≤ 5.4% vs Vintage typical 6.4%): PSA 9 45% → 42%, starting assumption; ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium0.2x