Identity checkMismatch
✓CardEX FireRed & LeafGreen #114/112 · Holo
✓Tracker matchArticuno ex · EX FireRed & LeafGreen · #114/112
✕Raw pricePulse $325.45 vs tracker $199.06 (-39%)
✓Gem rate16.4% · GemRate · this printing
✓PSA 10 comp$3,106 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 9 comp$641.82 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
✓PSA 8 comp$462.82 · PokemonPriceTracker 90d · matched by product ID
Your grading resultsNone logged
Your results on this set: none graded yet
Your results on Vintage: none graded yet
Vintage grade odds use the starting assumptions until 5 Vintage grades are back.
Graded economics+51%
PSA 10$3,106PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 9$641.82PokemonPriceTracker 90d
PSA 8$462.82PokemonPriceTracker 90d
Net EV$222.82$662.98 net sale vs $440.16 cost
EV rangeEV range: +40% / +51% / +61% (pessimistic / expected / optimistic)Max buy $409.37 (pessimistic case returns 20%), with the card's value held at $325.45PSA 10 rate 15.1–17.8% (80% interval on 216 / 1316); comps ±5.0% (comp quality 90). The 80% interval, the comp band and the ×0.5 / ×1.5 fallback without population counts are starting assumptions.
Outcome mix10 11% / 9 40% / 8 27% / ≤7 22%
PSA 10 ratePopulation 16.4% → adjusted 10.7% (Vintage, ×0.65 at $325 value, starting assumption)
Break-evenProfitable even with no PSA 10s
CostsRaw $325.45 + shipping $5.00 + grading $90.82 (expected; 11% chance of an upcharge tier) + submission shipping $6.00 + time cost $12.89 = $440.16Net sale after fees: PSA 10 $2,660.03 · PSA 9 $545.42 · PSA 8 $391.81 · ≤7 $245.98PSA tier: Standard $59.99; 11% chance of an upcharge to Super Express; about 121 days at PSA. PSA and eBay fees from their official pages; eBay fees include 7% sales tax in their base; that, the shipping and the 10%/yr time cost are your assumptions (Settings).
Grade splitVintage grade split (starting assumption); ≤7 valued at 90% of raw
PSA 10/9 premium4.8x
PopulationPSA 10
Gem rate16.4%
PSA 10 pop216
Total pop1,316
SourceGemRate
PSA 10 velocity-
Total velocity-
SnapshotJun 22, 2026
Scarcity72/100
LabelWatch
Confidence100/100
Supply70/100
Demand100/100
Gem rate 16.4%PSA 10 pop 216/1316PSA 10/9 premium 4.8xSupply constraint 70/100
Raw validationconfirmed
TCG market$199.06
Pulse price$325.45
Delta-39%
CheckedOct 15, 2026
Articuno exPSA comps refreshed Oct 15, 2026PSA sales window 90 days
Signal context1
Support$175.44 floor, 4 tests
*All-time high/low are within the tracked window (2024-03-08 - 2026-11-02). Raw, ungraded TCGplayer market price (blue) and cheapest listing (grey) via the free TCGCSV mirror. Personal, non-commercial prototype - not investment advice.